Salaries are forecast to rise by four per cent across the board this year, with finance, engineering and construction workers among the biggest winners, according to Mercer research.
Mercer's Market Issues Survey, of 258 organisations, reveals that after 18 months of subdued movement, salary increases are gaining pace.
Average rises of four per cent are expected in 2010 and 2011, compared with the three per cent seen last year.
Only in South Australia should base pay increase by less than four per cent before the end of the year (3.5%), but a return to the two-speed economy is a matter of 'when', not 'if', says Mercer human capital principal, Martin Turner.
"As investment in mining and infrastructure projects in WA and Queensland, respectively, were brought to a halt during the global financial crisis, pay packets in those states were brought back to earth. However, as the economy improves we expect to see them surge ahead of other states in the future as a result of the increasing skills shortage."
Differences between job families' forecast salary movements are not vast, the survey shows, but the 'winners' are:
- supply and distribution (4.8%);
- finance (4.7%);
- engineering (4.4%);
- construction (4.4%); and
- scientific (4.3%).
Salaries are expected to rise below the median for roles in:
- sales (3.9%);
- HR (3.8%);
- technical (3.6%);
- customer service (2.8%); and
- IT (2.7%).
Employers won't play 'catch-up'
Employees shouldn't assume that because the economy is recovering, employers will play 'catch-up' on the pay rises they missed last year, Turner says.
"It is a matter of both parties understanding recovery isn't instant. If employees have faced pay freezes and now expect organisations to make up for it, they'll be disappointed. However, a resurgent jobs market means employers need to retain staff, so they are feeling the pressure to increase salary budgets."
